Forex - Dollar broadly lower, weighed by U.S. default fears

The U.S. dollar remained broadly lower against its major counterparts on Monday, as a lack of progress in talks aimed at raising the U.S. debt ceiling added to fears over a possible default, boosting safe haven demand.

During early U.S. trade, the greenback was fractionally higher against the euro, with EUR/USD dipping 0.03% to hit 1.4354.

Earlier Monday, ratings agency Moody's cut Greece’s sovereign debt rating by three notches to Ca, just one notch above default, after euro zone leaders last week agreed to another EUR109 billion in aid for the indebted nation, combined with EUR37 billion from the private sector.

The greenback was slightly higher against the pound, with GBP/USD slipping 0.13% to hit 1.6277.

Industry data released earlier showed that mortgage approvals in the U.K. rose slightly more-than-expected in June, as consumers pushed back expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of England.

Elsewhere, the greenback was down against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY shedding 0.19% to hit 78.39 and USD/CHF tumbling 1.54% to hit 0.8070.

In Japan, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said earlier that recent currency moves were one-sided and that he was closely watching market developments.
  
In addition, the greenback was lower against its Canadian and New Zealand counterparts but dipped against its Australian cousin, with USD/CAD shedding 0.24% to hit 0.9455, NZD/USD inching up 0.02% to hit 0.8647 and AUD/USD sliding 0.12% to hit 1.0844.

New Zealand’s dollar remained supported close to its post-float high by expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.11%.

Fears over a possible U.S. default or sovereign downgrade escalated after talks between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders, aimed at raising the country’s USD14.3 trillion debt ceiling, broke down over the weekend.

Both Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s have placed their credit ratings on U.S. debt on review for a potential downgrade.

Source : forexpros.com

Readmore...

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The European currency saw the tendency to move towards the downside hitting the key support at 1.4100, then it managed an upside move until the levels of 1.4130s. Nevertheless, the upside potential is still possible and the Euro just consolidated at the top to gather some strength to move in a bullish trend again.

The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 1.4220 and the key support level at 1.4060.

The general trend is up as far as 1. 3270 remains intact targets now at 1.4050 and 1.4220.

Support: 1.4100, 1.4078, 1.4044, 1.4000, 1.3985
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4162, 1.4187, 1.4200, 1.4217

Recommendation: We expect buying Euro above 1.4110 with a target at 1.4180 stop loss below 1.4075.


GBP

The British pound consolidated at the critical level of 2.0150s. Meanwhile, the pound is still has the upside potential as long as it stays above the major level at 2.0070s.

The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 2.0260 and the key support level at 2.0040.

The general trend is up as far as 1.9700 remains intact targets now at 2.0635 and 2.0740.

Support: 2.0100, 2.0080, 2.0048, 2.0025, 2.0000
Resistance: 2.0125, 2.0155, 2.0180, 2.0200, 2.0230

Recommendation: We expect buying sterling above 2.0120 with a target at 2.0220 stop loss below 2.0070


JPY

The dollar against the Japanese yen yesterday moved in a bullish pattern ignoring the strength of the major resistance level at 115.15, so it managed to drive through the upside channel to hit the upper resistance level at 115.70s. The pair today is expected to progress towards the upside as long as it has high levels of volume.

The trading range for today will be between the key resistance at 116.70 and the key support at 114.00.

The general trend is down as far as 124.60 remains intact, targets at 112.40 and 111.20.

Support: 115.05, 114.87, 114.67, 114.48, 114.26
Resistance: 115.25, 115.55, 115.78, 116.00, 116.20

Recommendation: We expect selling USD/JPY below 116.20 with a target at 115.50, stop loss above 116.65


CHF

The dollar against the SWISS Frank yesterday fluctuated in a bullish pattern showing the tendency towards the upside since it couldn't progress towards the downside due to the strong support level at 1.1650s creating a bullish wave until the levels of 1.1790s. Hence, we expect the pair to progress towards the upside today.

The trading range for today will be between the key resistances at 1.1800 the key support at 1.1600.

The general trend is down as far as 1.2540 remains intact, targets at 1.1665and 1.1445.

Support: 1.1677, 1.1650, 1.1626, 1.1605, 1.1580
Resistance: 1.1709, 1.1720, 1.1738, 1.1756, 1.1780


CAD

The dollar against the Canadian Dollar remained so quiet as it traded in very narrow ranges. Thereby, it formed a rounding bottom since it couldn't pass the major support level at 0.9930s.

The trading range for today will be between the key resistance at 1.0150 and the key support at 1.0000.

The general trend is down as far as 1.0850 remains intact, targets will be at 1.0000 and 0.9700.

Support: 1.0045, 1.0025, 0.9985, 0.9950, 0.9930
Resistance: 1.0065, 1.0080, 1.0100, 1.0123, 1.0150

source :  http://forex-news-today.blogspot.com/

Readmore...

Can you reliably and rapidly meet All Your news and social media monitoring & sharing needs through a single service?

Newsdesk is a cutting-edge SaaS discovery and sharing service that pinpoints your most relevant content on the Web from 3 million+ sources returning 3 million+ results daily. Faceted search and near real-time analysis combine to give you a powerful media monitoring & intelligence solution. Marketing, PR, Corporate Communications, Research, and Social Media Departments rely on Newsdesk for informed decision-making, trend identification, reputation management, brand assessment, competitive edge, and more.

It's a proven winner, awarded CODiEs for "Best Information Solution" and "Best Content Aggregation Solution" by the Software and Information Industry Association (SIIA). Get News and Social Media in one unified service:

• Access far-reaching News articles, including top global sources, trade and industry publications, consumer sources, press wires, local and national press, and premium content including licensed national print publications and broadcast
• Access comprehensive Social Media conversations—blogs and microblogs, videos, forums, social networks, and more
• Use advanced filtering options for extremely targeted results
• Get information to the right people right away with robust email, newsletter, and news feed sharing
• Take advantage of product enhancements every two weeks
• Work with dedicated client services managers
• Integrate seamlessly into the enterprise with single sign-on and enterprise-grade security trusted by global corporations
• Receive unbeatable value starting at $1995

3 Newsdesk social & news media monitoring solutions to meet your needs:

Newsdesk Alert

Reveal, Refine and Share News as it breaks.

• Award-winning Unlimited Search
• Customizable Dashboard
• Automatic Email Alerts
• RSS Feed Export

Newsdesk Corporate

ALL Newsdesk Alert features plus...

• Analytics & Charting
• User Groups & Sharing
• Customizable Newsletters
• Email Manager to facilitate distribution
• Premium Content (e.g., print and broadcast)

Newsdesk Enterprise

ALL Newsdesk Corporate features plus...

• Managed Briefs & Consulting
• Media Analysis Reports
• Enterprise Branding
• Seamless Integration (single sign-on)
• Full Enterprise-grade Security

Source : http://w.moreover.com/

Readmore...

Swiss Franc Soars on Greece Downgrade, Uncertainty Over U.S. Debt Deal

The Swiss Franc found robust strength in the Asian and European sessions as investors sought safe haven amid the Moody’s downgrade of Greece as well as developing concerns that U.S. government might default on its debt. The Franc moved back towards its record high against the Euro, with the pair falling as low as 1.1530 in pre-North American trade. The all-time low was set last Monday, at 1.1369.

Moody’s Investors Service noted in a report released at approximately 5:00 GMT that the support package for Greece announced last week’s summit “benefits all euro area sovereigns by containing the contagion risk that would likely have followed a disorderly payment default on existing Greek debt.” The report also noted that “the credit implications of the announcement for creditors of individual countries depend on the balance of the positive market-stabilising elements of the plan and the negative precedent set by the endorsement of distressed exchanges between Greek creditors and the sovereign.”

Euro-Franc 5-minute Chart: July 25, 2011

Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

In a further dissection, Moody’s made the following notations about the downgrade, which are particularly relevant given the health of the global financial system:

• The support package incorporates the participation of private sector holders of Greek debt, who are now virtually certain to incur credit losses. If and when the debt exchanges occur, Moody's would define this as a default by the Greek government on its public debt.

• Accordingly, Moody's has today downgraded Greece's debt ratings from Caa1 to Ca to reflect the expected loss implied by the proposed debt exchanges. Once the distressed exchange has been completed, Moody's will reassess Greece's rating to ensure that it reflects the risk associated with the country's new credit profile, including the potential for further debt restructurings. While the rating agency believes that the overall package carries a number of benefits for Greece -- a slightly reduced debt trajectory, lower debt-servicing costs, as well as reduced reliance on financial markets for years to come -- the impact on Greece's debt burden is limited.

In terms of performance against the other major currencies, the Swiss Franc also found particular strength against the U.S. Dollar and the commodity currencies, as market participants, as they continue to digest the Euro-zone bailout package for Greece, are finding it difficult to muster the courage for risk-appetite. As U.S. lawmakers bicker over the finer details of a plan that would raise the debt ceiling, cut spending and raise revenues (or anything combination of the three), it’s becoming obvious that the markets will become increasingly jittery in the days ahead before a debt deal is struck. As such, the Franc, as well as other safe havens, such as Gold, which rose to an all-time high of 1624.30 in the overnight, is likely to find additional support in Dollar terms so long as uncertainty remains ahead of August 2.

On the day thus far, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index has traded in a choppy, approximate 30 point range, as high as 9476.10 and as low as 9444.46. The index was particularly weak last week, as concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling weighed on the U.S. Dollar. As long as concerns linger, the index will likely face continued downside pressure.





Fundamental Headlines

• Last Minute ‘Gang of Six’ Plan Derails Boehner Debt-Limit Deal with Obama – Bloomberg

• U.S. Stock Futures Down on Lack of Debt Deal – Bloomberg

• Debt-Talk Drama Puts Market on the Defensive – CNBC

• Money Market Funds Cut Euro Bank Exposure – Financial Times

• Moody’s Warns Greek Default Almost Certain – Reuters

EURUSD: The EUR/USD pair, unlike the EUR/CHF pair, was relatively unchanged, down 0.06 percent at the time this report was written (the EUR/CHF pair depreciated 1.93 percent in the overnight). The pair could face significant downside pressure once the U.S. debt crisis is resolved, as confidence in the world’s reserve currency is renewed. For now, as contagion is contained in Europe, the Euro could find some support in the near-term, although the recent bailout package appears to be an expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), making it a mirror image of the United States’ Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), which could ultimately result in a depreciation of the currency bloc.

Taking a look at price action, the pair broke through its key pivot today, at 1.4369, and although the daily chart suggests a sideways trade in the near-term, shorter-term timeframes suggest that the pair may have, in fact, topped in the near-term. On the 8-hour chart, the RSI has fallen to 58, from 68 on Thursday. Similarly, the MACD Histogram appears to have peaked in its bullish divergence, with the differential narrowing to +18 from +39 on Friday. The Slow Stochastic oscillator has issued a sell signal, however, with the %K less than the %D, at 82 and 83, respectively. Should the pair break below 1.4330, the path looks clear to at least 1.4150.

source : http://www.dailyfx.com/ 

Readmore...

Euro Posts Weekly Gain After Two Weeks of Losses

This week was “a mixed blessing” for the euro. For the most part, the currency showed a good performance as worries about the debt crisis subsided, but by the end of the week concerns returned.
The summit of the European Union leaders caused optimism among Forex traders, who anticipated some cohesive plan for dealing with the sovereign-debt crisis. The summit ended, a plan was presented, but traders didn’t look very happy about the outcome. Surely, some market participants were pleased by the plan of the EU leaders, but most investors aren’t sure that suggested measures would help to deal with the problems in the longer run, not to mentions concerns about expected Greek default.

The shared 17-nation European currency also get boost from the US, where politicians aren’t able to reach agreement about measures to battle the US debt crisis, making the dollar less appealing than the euro. But the decline of the euro against some currencies on Friday made traders feel uncertain about the euro. Was that drop just a minor correction or a first step in a long way down? It’s hard to tell as currently the euro, along with the dollar, is one of the worst currencies to trade because of its unpredictability.
EUR/USD jumped from 1.4109 to 1.4356 and EUR/JPY advanced from 111.58 to 112.75 over this week. EUR/CHF, unlike the previous two currency pairs, hasn’t declined on Friday, rose from 1.415 to 1.768 during this week and posted a weekly high of 1.1891.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

source : topforexnews.com

Readmore...

Euro Drops as Optimism Caused by EU Summit Wanes

The euro declined today on concerns that measures planned by the European leaders on the summit yesterday wouldn’t be enough to contain the sovereign-debt crisis.
The European lawmakers agreed to provide additional aid for Greece, expand the Eurozone bailout fund and allow to use it for purchasing bonds of indebted nations. Forex traders are worried, though, that such measures won’t be enough to deal with the crisis in the long run.
The EU leaders said in the statement:

Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis, important measures have been taken to stabilize the euro area, reform the rules and develop new stabilization tools. The recovery in the euro area is well on track and the euro is based on sound economic fundamentals. But the challenges at hand have shown the need for more far reaching measures.

Fitch Ratings commented today on the outcome of the summit:

The commitments agreed by euro area Heads of State represent an important and positive step towards securing financial stability in the euro zone. Fitch considers the nature of private sector involvement in a new financial programme of support for Greece to constitute a Restricted Default event. However, the reduction in interest rates and extension of maturities potentially offers Greece a window of opportunity to regain solvency, despite the formidable challenges that it faces.

EUR/USD dropped from 1.4423 to 1.4364 as of 19:25 GMT today after it reached the intraday low of 1.4323. EUR/JPY fell from 112.94 to 112.69.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

source : topforexnews.com

Readmore...

Police arrest 3rd teen in heist of euro stash

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- A third teen has been arrested and accused of breaking into an Annadale acquaintance's home and stealing euros and U.S. cash.

Francisco Berardi, 17, of Galloway Avenue, Port Richmond Center, was arrested Tuesday in connection with the July 6 heist.

According to court papers, Berardi and alleged accomplices Michael McQuillen and Raymond Burt drove to the residence shortly after 1 p.m. Berardi remained in the car as a lookout while his pals entered and snatched $1,065 in European Union currency and $6,000 in greenbacks, said court documents.

Two hours later, Burt and McQuillen exchanged the euros for cash at a Port Richmond bank, allege prosecutors. Those two suspects were previously arrested.

All three defendants are charged felony counts of second-degree burglary, third-degree grand larceny and third-degree stolen-property possession, said a spokesman for District Attorney Daniel Donovan. Berardi is also accused of fourth-degree stolen-property possession.

Readmore...

Forex: NZD/USD ends week with a gain of 200 pips

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Kiwi was among the best performer in the currency market and confirmed its strong momentum. NZD/USD reached a new all time high on Friday at 0.8670 and retreated afterwards to finish the week around 0.8640. The pair posted the fourth weekly gains in a row and has risen 650 pips since June 27.

The appreciation of the Kiwi across the board and outperforming other high yield currencies, has been supported by macroeconomic data.

NZD/CAD rose above 0.8200 for the first time since March 2008 while AUD/NZD posted the lowest weekly close since August 2010. EUR/NZD reached on Tuesday at 1.6495 the lowest price since 2005.

source: www.fxstreet.com

Readmore...